New energy vehicles enter key window period double point policy to promote new combination

“It’s incredible!” At the Beijing Auto Show, which opened on April 25th, a brokerage analyst and reporter huddled together at the launch of the “New Car Power” Beteng car, and realized the built-in of a new energy car. The visual impact of the 49-inch large screen. The Beijing Auto Show has traditionally been regarded as an arena for major automakers to show their future routes. At this year's auto show, a total of 174 new energy vehicles were exhibited, including 124 self-owned brand new energy vehicles, and new energy vehicles became well-deserved protagonists.

As the double-point policy has been implemented, with the acceleration of subsidies, the proportion of strategic investment by major auto companies for new energy auto products has rapidly increased. At the same time, the auto venture stocks are facing new opportunities and challenges in the new energy auto industry, which is opening up soon, the power battery industry is accelerating the reshuffle and the technical route is developing. On the eve of the great change, the combination of the company's vertical and horizontal modes is more complicated.

In 2018, a group of “new car-making” entrepreneurial auto brands, such as Weilai, Xiaopeng, Weimar, Baiteng and Singular, entered the real-time production time.

The scale of the new forces in the car has not been underestimated. According to incomplete statistics in the industry, the number of “new vehicles built in the past three years” has reached 314. Most of the new forces in the car will take the pure electric new energy vehicle route. In 2018, the restrictions on foreign-invested shares of new energy vehicles will be released. It is foreseeable that there will be interception of the inherent sphere of influence of joint ventures and local car companies, and a large number of imported cars will enter. China’s catch-up, the time window for the development of these emerging forces has been greatly shortened.

The new forces in the car itself are clearly aware of this. On April 20th, the low selling price of the first production car EX5 of Weimar Automobile exceeded expectations: the new car started at a price of 166,500 yuan, and the subsidy price was only 99,000 yuan. Compared to the price of the Weilai Automobile ES8, the price of Weimar is very grounded.

"These entrepreneurs are still in the stage of survival, and they must immediately establish themselves in the Chinese market. Earning not to make money is not the main indicator, they are ready to lose money. The biggest difference between the new power of cars and traditional car companies is to bring the Internet to the Internet. Into the car industry: a large number of subsidized consumers, so that the sales data is good-looking, just like the Internet earns traffic." Mei Songlin told the China Securities Journal reporter that for the new power of the car, gain market attention and obtain a certain sales volume is The most critical KPI indicator. The living space left to them after the policy changes will be small, and the action will be more radical.

Statistics show that in 2017, the entire new car-making enterprises completed 22.5 billion yuan to 23.5 billion yuan in financing. Mass production is imminent, and the demand for funds is more urgent. Cui Dongshu, secretary-general of the National Federation of Trade Unions, said in an interview with China Securities Journal that “as the product enters the market inspection period, the market performance of the first product is very important. Consumers’ perception of the brand depends mainly on products. Behind the forces, there is strong capital support. In the next two years, domestic capital will inevitably adjust its investment direction, and increase investment in its own recognized brands. The strong and weak will accelerate differentiation."

Zhao Fuquan, dean of the Institute of Automotive Industry and Technology Strategy of Tsinghua University, said: "The favor of capital provides capital protection for the development of new car manufacturers, but at the same time there are obvious problems. The development of enterprises has become a certain degree to some extent. Round financing and time competition, not product development and competition from competitors."

It is still too early for the new forces to reshape the automobile ecosystem in China. However, with the arrival of the mass production point and the opening of the joint stock market, the market expects the reshuffle and fight scenes of the new energy vehicle market. It does not appear, but the opposite is the "a group of harmony" in reality.

On April 20, Baiteng announced that it would hand in China FAW. China FAW not only participates in the B round of financing as a strategic investor, but also will further cooperate in the fields of product development, production, sales and service. Both parties have chosen to use cooperation to learn from each other's strengths: At present, FAW is at a comprehensive reform threshold, and it is too late to bypass the threshold of production qualification.

“Traditional car companies have resource integration, manufacturing capabilities and capital advantages; the new forces of car ownership have the advantage of embracing new technologies and opening up. The combination of the two sides can go out of the third way. This choice is obviously more cooperation than competition.” Mei Songlin said.

In fact, the policy of releasing new energy auto stocks has been seen in the past year. In June 2017, the Volkswagen Group, which entered the Chinese auto market for more than 30 years, once again established a joint venture with Jianghuai after the establishment of FAW-Volkswagen and SAIC Volkswagen. The shares of the two parties accounted for 50% each, and the Jianghuai Volkswagen was established to produce pure electric vehicles. . Since then, new combinations of BAIC and Daimler, Ford and Zotye, Great Wall and BMW have also come to the fore, and the way of foreign and Chinese capital has become more complicated.

A large part of this new combination stems from the appeal of double-points.

On September 28, 2017, the “Parallel Management Measures for Average Fuel Consumption and New Energy Vehicle Points for Passenger Vehicle Enterprises” (ie “Double Points”) was introduced, which is widely believed to have laid the future pattern of China's new energy automobile industry.

According to the policy, when calculating the integral, the actual fuel consumption value of the fuel vehicle and the actual cruising range of the new energy vehicle model will be comprehensively calculated. If the fuel consumption of a fuel vehicle in the integral range is lower than the national standard, a positive integral can be obtained, otherwise the score is negative. . New energy vehicles are all positive points, the higher the cruising range, the more points, the upper limit is 5 points. Therefore, in order to obtain higher positive points, the car companies are trying to reduce the fuel consumption of their own models on the one hand, and choose alliances on the other hand. Since self-owned brands are laid out earlier in the field of new energy vehicles, as long as they have established their own brands in the field of new energy, they will be the “sweet” of foreign brands.

The double-points policy was officially implemented on April 1st, but the assessment requirements for points will be postponed until 2019, and the points for 2019 and 2020 will be allowed to be combined. Although the policy gives a one-year buffer period, no matter whether it is a joint venture brand or a self-owned brand, it does not dare to relax. From the planning of various enterprises in this auto show, the proportion of strategic investment in new energy auto products is rapidly increasing.

For foreign brands, Volkswagen Group will invest 34 billion euros in the future to promote electric vehicles and new travel plans. It plans to invest 15 billion euros in China to expand electric power by 2022. Cars, autonomous driving, digital travel and other services. For Chinese brands, Changan Automobile was cited as an example. It announced the launch of its third venture at the strategic launch conference. It is planned that by 2020, the sales volume of new energy vehicles will reach 350,000, entering the first echelon of the industry. By 2025, it will reach full electrification, and sales of new energy vehicles will reach 1.16 million units, achieving the first Chinese brand. In addition, it is worth noting that all car companies are gradually getting rid of A00 low-end consumption this year, and the types of new energy vehicles with high cruising range and high configuration are fully blooming.

"BYD Qin's design is very delicate, it can be said that it is no worse than Audi." Some exhibitors lamented the China Securities Journal reporter. Since BYD launched the former design director of Audi, Iger, the value of new energy vehicles has increased greatly, and the design is exquisite and rich in Chinese characteristics. In fact, the improvement of BYD's brand power is only a microcosm of China's new energy vehicles. With the full-scale outbreak of the industry, China's new energy vehicles are rejuvenating from the inside out.

At the policy level, the auto industry has recently released an open signal: in 2018, the ratio of new energy vehicles will be released, and the restrictions on the establishment of no joint ventures by the same foreign enterprise will be cancelled. According to China's current automobile industry development policy, foreign-funded car companies need to establish joint ventures in China, and the Chinese stock ratio cannot be less than 50%. The same foreign company has the same number of partners in China. New energy auto companies can be free from two joint ventures. Quota limit.

Since 2017, the State Council has clearly approved that new production capacity of traditional vehicles will not be approved. Therefore, it is impossible for foreign auto companies to establish more than two joint ventures in China through traditional vehicles. If they want to establish a third joint venture, they can only Through the establishment of a new energy vehicle company. It is foreseeable that the competition of various car companies in the field of new energy vehicles will intensify.

In the context of opening up, with the global car companies to carry out the full-line competition of the new energy vehicle industry chain, can Chinese car companies face the challenge?

Throughout the global new energy automobile industry, China's own brand new energy vehicles have already had considerable competitive strength. According to statistics, in 2017, the total sales of new energy vehicles worldwide exceeded 1.42 million, and the cumulative sales exceeded 3.4 million. In 2017, China's new energy vehicle sales reached 770,000 units, with a cumulative sales volume of 1.8 million units, accounting for more than 50% of global sales. It is a veritable new energy vehicle power. At present, China has the most mature new energy vehicle supply chain in the world, and its power battery shipments account for more than 60% of the global total.

In addition, in the automobile group, there has been a phenomenon that independent brands export new energy vehicle technology to the joint venture company. For example, the auto brand owns the new energy vehicle system, and the GAC Chuanqi exports new energy vehicles to GAC Mitsubishi and Guangfike. Model.

It is worth noting that Tesla, as the “squid” in the global new energy automobile industry, will directly benefit the entire industry chain if it realizes the independent establishment of the factory in China. Cao Zhong, chairman of Changjiang Motors, believes that if Tesla enters China exclusively and does not have the blessing of joint venture partners, he will face the dual pressures of new energy vehicles and traditional vehicles from China alone. The huge market in China is full of temptation, but “ Tesla has a lot of pressure to set up factories in China."

For some foreign automakers that are not radical like Tesla, JD Power Vice President Mei Songlin believes that if foreign capital operates a new energy auto factory in China, it may stagger the market segment occupied by existing joint ventures and do it in China. Low-end new energy vehicles, "In general, the joint venture brand is taking the brand upward strategy, but in the future, they will not cut into the low-end segment of the new energy vehicle, which will directly compete with China's own brands."

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