Core point
1. Air-conditioning domestic sales have obvious seasonality. According to Zhongyi Kang's 2008-2017 retrospective, April-July is about the peak period of terminal sales, and retail sales accounted for 53-58% of the whole year, which is consistent with the function-oriented characteristics of air-conditioning and refrigeration. According to the industry online 2008-2017 retrospective, the peak period of domestic sales of manufacturers is from March to June, and the shipments account for about 40% of the whole year. The time leads the terminal sales, corresponding to the distribution of air-conditioning enterprises' production capacity between domestic and foreign sales. Gree and other companies represent the off-season distribution characteristics. The short-term fluctuations in terminal demand are determined by the weather, real estate boom and air-conditioning inventory cycle; the impact of the inventory cycle is reflected by the product price strategy.
2, the heat of the day will inevitably bring the terminal of air conditioning to sell well? According to the China Meteorological Administration, in the past five years, in 2013, 16 and 17 years of intense summer, 14 and 15 years have encountered cool summer. In terms of volume scale, in 2013-2016, Zhongyikang's annual sales volume corresponded to 21%, 19%, 21% and 23% of the industry's online sales during the year, which shows that the Yikang sample is relatively consistent. It is puzzling that Zhongyikang's retail sales in the 13-16 years was around 13.8 million units. The terminal demand did not significantly reflect the difference between the summer heat and the cool summer. This is also consistent with the situation of our terminal sales that continue to track Greemei. Duopoly In 2014-2016, the terminal sales volume in the domestic market is roughly the total of 40-40 million units per year. In 2017, the air-conditioning retail boom year, terminal sales achieved a growth of 20% or even higher, in line with the characteristics of the summer heat sales.
3. The determinants of terminal demand also come from real estate and inventory cycles. Why is the "high temperature effect" of terminal retailing failing in 14-16 but being fulfilled in 2017? Factors that affect demand are also changes in the real estate cycle and the vendor's business strategy in the inventory cycle. In 2013, the real estate sales boom was high and in 2014-2016Q1, the domestic air-conditioning market experienced a complete cycle of channel inventory from rapid increase to struggling, during which 16 months of air-conditioning price ASP fell, promotion boosted 14Q3-15Q4 years Terminal retail, but perhaps partially overdraft the terminal demand in 2016. In 2017, the terminal sales were benefited from the positive resonance of the post-real estate cycle and the heat. In addition, the increase in the per capita possession is the long-term driving force for the expansion of the air-conditioning market. Hot summer temperatures and product price cuts can be seen as catalysts for triggering air conditioning renewal needs and increased household ownership.
4. The inventory cycle has caused fluctuations in vendor shipments to increase. Vendor shipment = terminal sales + channel inventory. In the case of relatively stable terminal demand in 2014-2016, the intensification of the inventory cycle has amplified the volatility of the manufacturers' shipments, and the opening and closing of the alliance has been magnificent. According to the industry online, in 2014, manufacturers achieved 12.5% ​​growth through super-compressed cargo, but the terminal demand failed to synchronize, causing backlog of channel inventory; 2015H2-2016H1 achieved inventory de-reduction through price reduction, and manufacturers' shipments continued to decline in 2015-2016. Then, in 2017, the terminal demand was good, and the low base and low channel inventory background drove the manufacturers to achieve a 47% high growth.
Domestic air-conditioning sales have obvious seasonality
Air-conditioning domestic sales have obvious seasonality. According to Zhongyi Kang's 2008-2017 retrospective, April-July is about the peak period of terminal sales, and retail sales accounted for 53-58% of the whole year, which is consistent with the function-oriented characteristics of air conditioning and cooling. According to the industry online 2008-2017 retrospective, the peak period of domestic sales of manufacturers is from March to June, and the shipments account for about 40% of the whole year. The time leads the terminal sales, which corresponds to the distribution of air-conditioning enterprise capacity between domestic and foreign sales. The off-season distribution characteristics represented by companies such as Gree. The short-term fluctuations in terminal demand are determined by the weather, real estate boom and air-conditioning inventory cycle; the impact of the inventory cycle is reflected by the price strategy.
Online sales are concentrated in June and July, and seasonal performance is more pronounced. According to the monthly sales of Taobao + Tmall air conditioners in the past year, June, July and November were the peak sales of online sales. Among them, November was mainly stimulated by the Double Eleven Shopping Festival, which has nothing to do with seasonal factors.
Will the heat of the day bring the terminal of air-conditioning to sell well?
The summer heat hits in 2013, 16 and 17 years, and in the summer of 2014 and 15 years.
According to the China Climate Bulletin issued by the China Meteorological Administration, the strongest high-temperature heat wave since 1951 has appeared in the south of China in the summer of 2013. The high coverage above 40°C is more than three times that of the year, the largest since 1961. The billboard near the station has spontaneously ignited. In 2016, China's summer temperature reached the highest level in history, 0.9°C higher than normal year-on-year, and the number of high-temperature days was large, and the range of influence was wide. The highest temperature in many places broke the historical extreme value. In the summer of 2017, the national average temperature was 21.7 °C, 0.8 °C higher than normal year-on-year, and tied for the second highest since 1961 in 2013, second only to 2016 (21.8 °C).
In the summer of 2014, the national average temperature was 21.1 °C, which was only 0.2 °C higher than normal, and there was a rare cool summer in the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River. The temperature was 0.6 °C lower. In August, there was continuous low-temperature and rainy weather, and the temperature in most areas was low. 2~3°C, the average temperature in Anhui and Jiangsu is the lowest since 1961. In the summer of 2015, the national average temperature was 21.2 °C, which was only 0.3 °C higher than normal. The temperature in most parts of the Middle East was close to normal or low in the middle of the Yangtze River, and the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River and the northern part of Chongqing and Guizhou were 0.5 to 1 °C lower. The local area of ​​Anhui is 1~2°C lower, and the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River appear cool summer.
In terms of volume scale, in 2013-2016, Zhongyikang's annual sales volume corresponded to 21%, 19%, 21% and 23% of the industry's online sales during the year, which shows that the Yikang sample is relatively consistent. It is puzzling that Zhongyikang's retail sales in the 13-16 years was around 13.8 million units. The terminal demand did not significantly reflect the difference between the summer heat and the cool summer. This is also consistent with the situation of our terminal sales that continue to track Greemei. Duopoly In 2014-2016, the terminal sales volume in the domestic market is roughly the total of 40-40 million units per year. In 2017, the air-conditioning retail boom year, terminal sales achieved a growth of 20% or even higher, seems to fit the characteristics of the summer heat.
It seems that there is a lack of common sense to judge, "cool summer" is not obvious for the driving role of air-conditioning sales? In 13/16/17, the sales volume of Zhongyi Kangwang (April to July) increased by 12.4%/6.9%/5.9% year-on-year, and the growth rate was not equal. In 2013, although the air-conditioner retail sales grew at a higher rate, it was still not as good. The overall retail sales growth rate of air conditioners (15.9%) in the whole year, that is, the growth of air conditioner sales in 2013 is not mainly driven by the peak season. To put it another way, the proportion of sales in the peak season in the whole year can also measure the importance of the peak season to the annual sales, but in the three “summer†years of 13/16/17, the annual sales of the peak season are lower than the historical average. Level (average ratio in the peak season from 2009 to 2017).
In addition, the "cool summer" suppression of air-conditioning terminal sales is not absolute. In the summer of 2014, the weather was cool. The peak season retail sales increased by 5% year-on-year, still higher than the overall annual growth rate of 1.7%, and the annual sales ratio in the peak season was also higher than the historical average. The “cool summer†effect in 2015 was more obvious. The retail sales in the peak season fell by 6.6% year-on-year, and the annual retail sales fell by 0.9%.
Terminal demand is also affected by real estate and product prices
As mentioned above, why does the “high temperature effect†of terminal retailing fail in 2016 but is fulfilled in 2017? It can be seen that in addition to the weather factor, the determinants of terminal demand also come from the real estate and inventory cycle. The impact of the inventory cycle is reflected by the price strategy in the sales process.
In 2013, the real estate sales boom was high, and in 2014-2016Q1, the domestic air-conditioning market experienced a complete cycle of rapid increase in channel inventory and the cycle of struggle, during which 16 months of air-conditioner ASP fell, and the promotion drove 2014Q3-2015Q4 Terminal retail, but perhaps partially overdraft the terminal demand in 2016. In 2017, the terminal sales were benefited from the positive resonance of the post-real estate cycle and the heat.
The expansion of the domestic air-conditioning market and the long-term driving force for the increase in the per capita possession. High temperature weather and product price cuts can be seen as a catalyst to trigger air conditioning renewal demand and increased household ownership.
Inventory cycle leads to increased volatility in vendor shipments
The inventory cycle is why manufacturers' shipment fluctuations are amplified. Vendor shipment = terminal sales + channel inventory. In the case of relatively stable terminal demand in 2014-2016, the intensification of the inventory cycle has amplified the volatility of the manufacturers' shipments, and the opening and closing of the alliance has been magnificent. The growth rate of manufacturers' shipments in 2017 (48% of industry online) is also significantly faster than terminal sales (estimated at 20%. The data of Zhongyikang is not quoted here: because the volume of China Yikang's corresponding industry online in 2017 is larger than that of 2016 The decline of 7pct to 17% is expected to be related to the rapid development of air-conditioning e-commerce). According to Industry Online, in 2014, manufacturers achieved 12.5% ​​growth through super-normal presses, and the terminal demand failed to synchronize, causing backlog of channel inventory; 2015H2-2016H1 achieved inventory de-reduction through price reduction, and manufacturers' shipments declined continuously in 2015-2016. . Then, in 2017, terminal demand was booming, low base and low channel inventory, driving manufacturers to achieve a 47% high growth.
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