A gust of wind from the north blew away the hustle and bustle of Beijing. The haze that hangs over the VR world does not seem to be easily dissipated.
Layoffs, bankruptcies, losses. In 2016, VR experienced the development of “roller coaster styleâ€, leaving us with a tired and sad figure on the occasion of winter. Although the beautiful imagination of VR has become a beautiful data in various reports on future market forecasts, the bleak cash flow of reality has reminded people in the industry that the development of VR is still in its initial stage.
Hardware "fans shipments"
The reddish sweetness is called the eighth unsolved mystery of the world, and hardware shipments or licenses are called the first unsolved mystery of the VR world.
In the early days of the industry, major hardware manufacturers were blind to their sales data. Almost all of the sales figures of the three major vendors come from estimates made by data organizations based on user and platform data. Under the reporter's pursuit, only HTC Chairman Wang Xuehong let go of the vague answer that "Vive sales far exceed 140,000 units."
The shipments of fans can also prove that they are not orders of magnitude, and hardware manufacturers cannot have considerable cash flow under such circumstances. What's more, the two concepts of VR hardware shipments and sales are not equal. It has also become the industry consensus. When estimating the sales volume of VR hardware, the data organization actually gives a face.
The hardware must go through a long iteration. Only the mass of the giant can support it. Even if the shipment reaches an order of magnitude, the hardware manufacturers may face a loss. At this point, the storm may be a vivid example. According to the data provided by the Stormwind, the sales volume of Stormwind Mirror is 2.5 million to 3 million units this year. The Storm Mirror App has 1.5 million monthly users, 4 million registered users, and nearly 2,000 platform contents. However, the storm VR business also It was revealed that there was a huge loss, which also confirmed the layoffs of the previous storm sunglasses.
The development of hardware is far from mature. If you want to let the sales figures be exposed to the sun, you still have to go through a long process of technological development and change. This requires hardware manufacturers to be busy building platforms and ecology, but also to put the research technology first.
Dachang's "power game"
As Chu Hanjin, director of the technical program of AMD Graphics Division, mentioned in an article about the 2016 VR big-scale pattern, Facebook, HTC, Sony, Samsung, AMD, Unreal and other big companies in the VR field. One thing in common is that they have not seized the opportunity in the mobile Internet field to be frustrated.
The more frustrated, the more you want to seize every opportunity to overturn. This is obviously HTC's inner monologue that suffers from negative news such as falling stock prices and years of losses. Despite being dubbed by the media as "not having tasted profitability for many years," HTC executives have always shown their full mentality. In addition to the increase in HTC confidence due to the launch of new markets in India and other places, VR is clearly used as a lifeline by HTC. Just as Zhang Jialin, president of HTC Global Sales, has publicly stated that HTC Vive will become a new driving force for HTC's profitability. HTC Chairman Wang Xuehong also described the future of VR in various conferences and emphasized that the Chinese market is the top priority of HTC layout.
However, in the case that the C-side outbreak is temporarily hopeless, Vive obviously cannot achieve the back-feeding of the entire HTC Group by virtue of the meager profits of hardware sales, and the advantage of its own “land advantage†to expand the industry application market has become the HTC Vive. The choice. In the view of HTC Vive executives, education is definitely the market closest to cash flow.
China is a country with a large population. With the improvement of living standards, the proportion of education expenditures to residents' income and expenditure has increased year by year. With the acceleration of the process of education informatization, the government's investment in education has also increased year by year. Analysys predicts that the size of China's Internet education market will reach RMB 18 billion in 2017. The potential huge market also makes HTC in order to get the big cake of VR education as soon as possible. At present, HTC is working hard to incubate the content quotient team focusing on VR education, and jointly set up VR Group with WISCO Group and School Online. Educational joint venture company Wei Ai Education, and cooperate with local governments to carry out VR education pilot projects.
It can be said that HTC hopes to start from the government and open up the entire VR education market in China from the top down. However, in addition to the immature VR technology, the concept needs to be popularized, and the basic issues to be established, VR education needs to face the resource squeeze from the deep-rooted test-oriented education and the development of online education. In addition, the government often “slows the market†in accepting new things. Even if it is really interested in VR education, it will take a long period of investigation and decision-making to finally “payâ€.
VR has the brilliance of icing on the cake, but it can't maximize the ability to send charcoal in the snow. It is foreseeable that even a large factory such as HTC will play a "power game" that does not transfer cash flow in the fields of education and medical care in a short period of time.
Content quotient is "technology"
Although the "content is king" rule is still pursued by people in the VR industry, the content provider's days are not as imaginative. The calmness of investors and the embarrassment of cash flow have also forced many content providers to follow the path of “being a skillâ€.
“I think the VR model may be a pseudo-demand.†A person in charge of the startup department focusing on the VR model room said such a discourse. Ironically, VR viewing was the hottest VR of the VR a year ago. The VR model room is considered to be the standard for real estate. A large number of startup companies have turned their backs to become "pigs on the wind." However, in the complicated consumption behavior of buying a house, the marketing role of VR has not been highlighted. Behind the fiery VR model, it is the dilemma of the actual landing rate is not high, the usage rate is not high, and the repurchase rate is not high. This has also led many content providers who originally only targeted VR to see the home, began to turn to home improvement, games, education, medical and other fields, and even began to walk on multiple legs, and strive to become a "all-in-one skill" versatile athlete.
The fact that content providers change direction in pain and multi-directional parallelism does not mean that there are no technical barriers between VR content. On the contrary, it is necessary to have high technical barriers to create quality content. For example, it takes many years of AI development experience to create a 3A-level game masterpiece. The VR education and VR medical needs are deeply accumulated in related fields. Therefore, the possibility of "being a skill" is only the end of the study.
Behind the need to create demand, there is a reality that content providers have to struggle to find cash flow when they face survival problems. In the early stage of the industry development, many content providers chose to hold the "thigh" of the hardware platform, relying on one-time copyright and sharing. However, with the increase of content providers, the hardware has begun to optimize, and gradually reduced or even eliminated the copyright. In the current market where the consumer market has not yet emerged, the division can almost be equal to the "short check". The great enthusiasm of the B-end users and the way the project system operates clearly match the content of the content providers looking for cash flow.
To wait for the bonus of VR outbreak, how to survive is the primary issue for content providers to consider. However, if you are looking for cash flow as an outsourcer, content providers can only continue to live for a short time and cannot continue to develop. How to find a balance between looking for cash flow and professional development is a question that every content provider should think deeply.
VR may not have a large-scale outbreak in two or three years or even ten years, but this does not mean that VR will come to an end. When people in the industry actively seek development, they must abandon the radical mentality. The cash flow of the haze is only temporary, but it cannot be allowed to limit the self-development haze due to cash flow. For the VR industry, it is better to be an eagle who can fly freely when there is no wind.
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