Just as the first Ford Model T car was born 109 years ago from the 461 Ford Plant on Piquet Street in Detroit, new energy vehicles powered by electrification are starting a new era.
A new study by Boston Consulting Group shows that by 2030, new energy vehicles including pure electric and hybrid will surpass fuel vehicles in terms of market share.
The agency has summarized some possible causes for such trends: In recent years, the laws and regulations of various governments in the prevention and control of air pollution have been continuously strengthened. At the same time, the application cost of power batteries, the core component of new energy vehicles, has continued to decrease. On the other hand, more and more consumers can enjoy various forms of incentive policies when purchasing clean energy vehicles.
"So many positive factors will cause explosive growth in the new energy vehicle market in the next few years," Boston Consulting Group concluded in a report titled "The Electric Car Tipping Point" (The Electric Car Tipping Point).
As one of the world's largest mining companies, BHP Billiton even gave more optimistic expectations. The company’s chief commercial officer stated in September that 2017 may be the “breakout point†for the new energy vehicle market. The company predicts that by 2035, the global new energy vehicles will have more than 140 million units.
Despite promising prospects for the new energy vehicle market, Boston Consulting Group nevertheless forgot to warn that the current global market share of pure electric and hybrid vehicles is only about 4%. To achieve the aforementioned goals, there are still a series of obstacles that need to be overcome: the scarcity of charging piles, the anxiety of cruising range, and the relatively high price of products.
In fact, changes in the automotive market towards the electrification have quietly occurred. Statistics from the International Energy Agency (IEA) show that in 2016 global sales of new energy vehicles reached 750,000 units, a surge of 40% year-on-year. As of now, the number of new energy vehicles used worldwide has exceeded 2 million units.
Just five years ago, this trend seems unimaginable. The application cost of core components such as power batteries remains high, which in turn leads to product pricing that exceeds the user's psychological tolerance and is considered to be an important reason for the slow development of the new energy vehicle market.
Even in the European market where new energy technologies started earlier, electric vehicles are still seen as “the privilege of the rich†for quite some time. According to a study by the European Automobile Manufacturers Association, the market penetration rate of new energy vehicles is closely related to the living standards of local residents, and the impact of price factors on the consumption of new energy vehicles even exceeds the policy and regulatory orientation.
The survey shows that in countries with a per capita gross national product exceeding 30,000 Euros (approximately RMB 232,500), the market share of electric vehicles is only 1%, and the per capita GNP is lower than 17,000 Euro (approximately In the area of ​​RMB 133,800, the above figures are close to zero.
“But in Norway, where the per capita gross national product reached 64,000 euros (about RMB 496,000 yuan), the penetration rate of electric vehicles has reached 29%.†Eric Jonalt, Secretary-General of the European Automobile Manufacturers Association (ErikJonnaert) said.
Nowadays, as the trend of declining prices becomes more apparent, new energy vehicles show the same effect as the Ford Model T cars of that year. In 1908, the latter used a price acceptable to the average consumer to get a large number of fuel vehicles into daily human life. The price of new energy vehicles is expected to be reduced to the same level as traditional fuel vehicles in the short term.
Based on this judgment, Boston Consulting Group predicts that the growth of new energy vehicles worldwide will become an irreversible trend since 2025.
Right now, pioneers in electric vehicle manufacturing such as Tesla are trying to increase the production of models for the mass market (eg, Model 3).
At the same time, some giants in the traditional automotive industry are also accelerating the pace of development in the field of power electrification. For example, Renault announced that it will launch 8 new energy vehicles by 2022; BMW will help 25 of its products to become electrified by 2025; Volvo will announce that it will stop producing pure-combustion engine models after 2019; even The Fiery Chrysler Group, which has always been skeptical of electrification, also stated that it will supply half of its products with electrified power by 2022...
Boston Consulting Group expects that China will become the main force of the global new energy vehicle market. The local government is currently trying to set a timetable for the ban on the sale of fuel vehicles, and plans to implement a “double-integration policy†(fuel consumption and new energy vehicle points) for automakers in 2019.
“As of 2030, the local market share of pure electric vehicles and hybrid vehicles will reach 17% and 33%, respectively, and the cumulative share of the two will exceed 50%,†the agency predicts.
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Shenzhen Maintex Intelligent Control Co., Ltd. , https://www.maintexmotor.com