On January 5th, 2017, the 2016 Gaogong LED Annual Meeting·Golden Ball Awards Ceremony and the 10th Anniversary of the High-yield Industry and Research (2006-2016) celebration hosted by Gaogong LED were held in the theme of “Looking for the Future of LEDâ€. Shenzhen Long restarted the curtain.
As the annual year-end event of the LED industry chain, the 2016 Gaogong LED Annual Meeting will once again bring together domestic and foreign business leaders, and in-depth analysis of the overall industry opportunities and risks with more than 500 industry elites on site, and comprehensively look forward to technology, market, capital, pattern, etc. The trend of various aspects is going forward, and we are looking for the “decision†of China and the global LED lighting industry in the next three years.
On the morning of January 5th, at the opening ceremony of “New Vision of Industrial Integrationâ€, which was named by Jingyuan Optoelectronics, Dr. Xie Zhiguo, deputy director of Guoxing Optoelectronics R&D Center, delivered a wonderful speech on “The Law of LED Encapsulation Evergrandeâ€. The development law of the industry and the development trend of the industry in the future are elaborated.
Dr. Xie Zhiguo, Deputy Director of Guoxing Optoelectronics R&D Center
Xie Zhiguo said that the law of the big Evergrande has been presented in many industries, such as steel, coal and other traditional fields, or emerging e-commerce industry. This trend has begun to appear in the LED industry, especially in the upstream chip field.
The data shows that in 2016, the output value of the entire LED industry chain exceeded 500 billion yuan, and the growth rate reached 22.8%. The package size reached 74.8 billion yuan, the whole industry chain price rose across the board, the upstream chip rose by 10-15%, and the midstream device rose by 5-10%.
Xie Zhiguo pointed out that for the midstream packaging companies, there are two major markets, namely lighting and display.
For example, in the general lighting market, there are 8 billion LED lamps in China in 2016, and 3.8 billion in China. The LED penetration rate has exceeded 40% in China, an increase of 10% compared with 2015.
In the display market, the small-pitch display market continued to be hot in 2016, and the scale of the technology continued to grow due to the technical advantages of small pitch.
In 2016, indoor lighting increased from 60,000 square meters per square meter to 270,000 square meters per square meter in 2015, which is equivalent to a three-fold increase in the demand for upstream chip and packaging market. With the improvement of outdoor display chip technology, high energy density The development of this part of the market has a huge gap between supply and demand.
In 2016, the total demand for LEDs with small pitch indoors and outdoors was 141.3 billion. Currently, the production capacity of small-pitch LEDs is around 70 billion, and there will still be a large gap between supply and demand in the future.
"From the above, we can see that there are huge imaginations in the future general lighting market and display market." Xie Zhiguo said that the technology-driven concerns in these two markets are also changing.
First of all, in the general lighting market, for example, the customer's concerns and needs are not limited to the price, but also the product's life, reliability, whether there is a blue light hazard, etc., also began to highlight.
"These concerns require companies to invest a large amount of research and development resources to continue to develop around the customer's concerns and continuously improve the competitiveness of the products." Xie Zhiguo said.
In terms of indoor and outdoor display screens, what kind of products should the indoor display P0.8 use? What solution should be used under P0.8? How can the outdoor display improve its moisture resistance and UV resistance? How to improve its contrast and solve it? Its small spacing problem? These problems require enterprises to invest a lot of research and development resources, constantly upgrade and improve existing products, and develop solutions with smaller spacing.
After the price wars and industry reshuffles in previous years, the industry is shifting from blindly pursuing low prices to focusing on products itself, which is the advantage of big companies. And some small and medium-sized enterprises without core technology have forced to close down, or turn to a certain segment, which led to the gradual increase of industry concentration.
Xie Zhiguo pointed out that the current industry presents several trends: the demand for the entire market is increasing. At present, although the demand for LEDs continues to increase, the competitiveness of overseas packaging giants in general lighting devices is gradually weakening, including Nichia and Osram. International companies such as Lumileds and Samsung are constantly seeking differentiated markets, avoiding the disadvantages of production capacity, and even transferring some orders to domestic packaging factories for OEM.
In the domestic market, several major packaging companies began to expand capacity in 2016. In the conventional general-purpose devices of SMEs, brands, capital, technology, scale, and production capacity are at a disadvantage. Some enterprises with backward technology are gradually withdrawing from the market, and the leading share of large enterprises in the market has been strengthened.
"From the first three quarters of 2016, the industry concentration in 2016 is further improved. It is expected that there will be four to five top ten manufacturers who can enter the 5 billion clubs." Xie Zhiguo said.
From the data of the 2015 High-Technology Research Institute LED Research Institute: In 2015, more than 20% of LED-related companies withdrew from the market. The concentration of lighting and packaging is also continuing to increase, and the share of SMEs is further eroded. The number of packaging companies is estimated to be only 1,000 in 2016, and there will be only 500 packages left by 2020.
Xie Zhiguo finally pointed out that it is not difficult to expand the capacity of packaging enterprises, but the core competitiveness, cost control, and technology development capabilities are truly competitive.
In the future, backward production capacity and backward technology will be continuously eliminated, and new entry will be significantly reduced. Therefore, the law of Evergrande, the major in the packaging industry, will become more and more obvious.
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