Toshiba, a Japanese lighting manufacturer, made predictions on the Japanese electric spherical LED lamp market before and after the 311 earthquake. Comparing the forecast data at two time points, it can be found that the Japanese electric spherical LED lamp market has experienced rapid growth due to the impact of the 311 earthquake. Pre-earthquake targets are achieved 1 to 2 years in advance. According to the prediction after the 311 earthquake, the cumulative sales volume of electric spherical LED lamps in 2011~2013 was 1.5 times that of the pre-earthquake prediction, and in 2013, the Japanese electric spherical LED lamp market has entered a mature stage.
From the perspective of Japan's electric spherical LED lamp retention rate, the growth rate is relatively slow in 2013~2016, which only grows by 1~2 percentage points per year. According to Toshiba's forecast, 2011-2013 is the peak period for replacing bulbs in Japan, and electric spherical LEDs. The life of the lamp is about 5 years, and the life of the electric spherical fluorescent lamp is about 2~3 years. Therefore, the growth of the growth rate of the spherical LED lamp in 2013~2015 is a reasonable phenomenon. It is estimated that another wave will be entered after 2017. During the replacement period, the retention rate of Japanese electric spherical LED lamps will be expected to rise again.
In addition, the Japanese government also provides LED lighting subsidies and promotion plans to actively accelerate the popularization of LED lighting in Japan. It is expected that the lighting that will be available in the market in 2020 will be solid-state lighting such as LED or OLED. In 2030, Japan will fully switch to solid state. Lighting target.
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